A number of readers have asked me how they might invest in Panama and the canal expansion and when this article came across my desk I thought it worthy of posting. It seems there are indirect ways to invest without the risk of starting your own business in Panama.
From Seekingalpha.com
www.violentcapitalist.com
Asset Management
Portfolio Management
Research
Bladex (Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior S.A.) (BLX)
is a trade finance bank headquartered in Panama. Being a trade bank
means they only operate with short term loans, predominantly financing
international transactions (i.e. letters of credit). They have some
other commercial lending and asset management businesses, and the
latter has been the source of much of their problems in their inability
to generate meaningful income the past few quarters. The other problem
has been the fact that they have been unable to grow their loan book.
As of Q1, they have over $300M cash deposits and about $1.8 billion in
debt. Book value stands around $700M. Market Cap is about $450M.
Normalized earnings for the year should total about $50M. Therefore the
PE ratio stands at about 8.5x and its Market Cap to book value is .55.
It looks like book value has declined slightly in Q2, so it's probably
closer to .6 as of today. The stock also has a 4.5% dividend yield. Its
capital ratios stand above 20%, and writeoffs for losses are paltry.
Regardless,
the earnings power of Bladex is probably upwards of $70M, and
especially as interest rates rise and trade with Central and South
American continues to grow I think it'll get closer to $100M, possibly
making them worth in the mid $20's. It wouldn't hurt if the bank can
start generating some positive income from the asset management
business as well (mostly short-term mark to market losses anyways). The
bank currently now depends mostly on Brazil, which covers about 50% of
the loan book. However, they are looking to expand their footprint.
Peru and Chile accounted for $60M in loans in 2008, in 2008 that number
has grown to almost $400M.
The catalyst here in my opinion is
the strength of the Panamanian economy (Panama has not had a recession
since the fall of Noriega and is a USD-based economy) and the expansion
of the Panama Canal. The canal is set to expand its capacity 100% over
the next few years, providing steady growth for Panama and opportunity
for all trade finance-related operations to grow their businesses.
Panama itself is a very interesting country. It's main industries are
in banking/finance/trade, whereas a lot of outsiders will probably
assume that it would probably be more akin to its neighbors' strengths
in tourism/commodities/manufacturing. Regardless, Panama, being the
owner of the Panama Canal, gets to play on all these factors as global
trade expands.
On face value, Bladex should at minimum be worth
book value or about $18.50/share. As the world economy stabilizes and
Central/South America expand, along with the expansion of the Panama
Canal, it should see steady growth for the next few years. A
concentration on short term lending insulates it from many of the
problems larger banks have faced, and a USD-based currency takes out
currency risks for US investors.
Tell me what US bank has a better risk-adjusted investment case.
Conservative Fair Value: $18.50
Strategy: Buy 1/3 of a position at $12, 55% potential gain + 4.5% dividend yield, 5 year total return expected to be about 100%
Disclosure: Outstanding order to purchase at about $12/share
General wages in Panama have increased significantly and this time it is not due to government minimum wage increases. This is market driven wage increase as demand for labor outstrips supply and those with skills are rewarded with higher pay. Everyone wants higher pay, but it is always the demand that sets the wage in a free market. In a recent study conducted by Price/Waterhouse/Cooper they show a 14.3% increase over 2008 wage rate. According to the study transnational companies are responsible for the highest increase with nearly 10% over 2009. Increase wages mean increase spending and everyone wins especially when the increase is from an outside source.
Panama has always had a national ID card they call a cedula and according to a recent article in
Panamanian banks are walking a fine line between confidentiality, which is guaranteed by law, and disclosure to other countries regarding their citizens accounts in Panama banks. It appears that Panama may have negotiated ten bilateral agreements regarding double taxation that could compromise their bank secrecy laws and cause a lot of foreign capital flight if a clear protocol is not put into effect. A recent meeting of the major Panama banks, and reported on by
I'm sure many of my readers already are aware of this new law that is to take affect in January 2012, but for those who aren't aware and are living in the U.S. it should be of interest. It is just another example of just how desperate that government is and to what lengths they will go to try and track every dime you spend and every move you make. Those who buy gold believing that it is the ultimate protection in the event of a currency melt down may find they will be targeted just when they need it the most. What does this have to do with Panama? They don't have such reporting requirement here.
I found this article from
The new Wall Street reforms implemented by the U.S. government are certain to make banking in Panama (and everywhere else) for U.S. citizens a lot more difficult. I have not yet confirmed this report, but based on this article in La Prensa today, the local banks are taking it seriously. The issue for them is the cost of compliance. If they must withhold 30% of all funds transferred out of their bank and report it to the U.S. government, it costs time and money and for small account holders such as U.S. retired folks, it just may not be worth it. There may be a rash of account closings and gnashing of teeth by disgruntled U.S. account holders and I don't blame them. From the photo of the democrats at the signing of the bill, they seem very pleased with it.





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