My friend and colleague, Paul McBride wrote this piece earlier this week. Paul and I have been watching things pretty closely over the years and it has become clear to us both that the window of opportunity is closing for those who want to get their assets and their asses out of the U.S.. We don't believe the government will stop you from leaving, but they will make it very much more difficult and expensive to do so. I believe Paul's scenario below is very close to the truth.
The United States
Government Does Not Want You to Move to Panama
Actually, the U.S.
government doesn’t care whether you decide to move to Panama or not, they just
don’t want you to take your money.
Most of the people I meet who are looking for a home or property
in Panama just want to live comfortably in a beautiful environment at a
reasonable cost. For many, Boquete
is the perfect choice. Mild weather,
magnificent scenery, great community and most, if not everything, they need to
live a cozy day to day existence. I
can safely say that the average couple living in Boquete spends less than
$2,000 a month in total living expenses.
That’s everything – car, health and home insurance, food, gas,
entertainment (we go out a lot!), utilities, cable TV, Internet. You name it, the whole enchilada. Did I
mention very low or no property taxes?
This simple formula, low living costs and quality lifestyle,
was the reason that Boquete became one of the most desirable retirement
destinations in Latin America.
But what if I told you that the price of real estate in
Boquete was likely to increase as much as 30% in the next two years or so? A home that costs $250,000 today could
be as much as $350,000 in that short period of time. A $150,000 condo could
cost $215,000 or more. In
today’s market that sounds absurd.
But this is a real possibility…… if you happen to be a U.S. citizen.
You see, the United States Treasury is concerned about money
leaving the country. Money
that they’re going to need to pay their bills. The Federal government is running an
operating budget deficit of over a trillion dollars this year and, by their own
admission, this level of deficit spending is projected to continue for several
years in the future. In order to
service this unfathomable debt they’re going to need to do one of two things –
drastically cut spending on defense and entitlement programs or significantly
raise taxes. Which way do you
think they’ll go?
My bet is that they will raise taxes and it’s not
unthinkable to believe that the total tax burden for high income workers (the
definition of which keeps changing all the time) will reach a combined total of
60% to 70% when you include state, local and federal taxes. Think about that – 60 to 70 cents of
every dollar you earn will go to the government, with much of it being spent to
cover the debt. And the state and
local governments are in even worse shape. I project that
will see increases in income taxes, capital gains taxes, payroll taxes, Medicare
withholding, property taxes, sales taxes, death taxes, increased fees for
services, all types of licenses and taxes we haven’t even heard of yet. If a state, local or the federal
government can squeeze a nickel out of you, they most certainly will.
In an environment like this, more than a few people will
stop voting at the ballot box and start voting with their feet. They will begin leaving the country
with as many assets as they can and go somewhere where they can live their
lives in comfort without watching everything they’ve worked for, everything
they sacrificed for, get taken away in taxes or eaten up by inflation.
The federal government is aware of this real
possibility. So aware, in fact,
that they’ve been methodically preparing for this potential exodus of money for
the past two years.
On June 17th, 2008 the Heroes Earnings Assistance and Relief Tax Act of 2008 (H.R. 6081), also known as the Heart Act, was unanimously passed by Congress and signed into
law by the President (a Republican no less). This piece of legislation was very well intended. It provided much needed tax relief for
the men and woman of our military who are sacrificing their time and their
lives for our country. But this
bill also contained some language that targeted a very different group – expats
who, for whatever reason, decided to give up their U.S. citizenship. The bill provides for withholding taxes
of up to 30% on certain assets held by the expat as well as assessing the value
of the property of the expat 24 hours prior to the renouncing of their citizenship. Keep in mind; only around 600 Americans
renounce their citizenship each year, so the expected revenue from this small
group is relatively limited.
More important are the procedures and policies established by this bill
that can be modeled for future legislation.
Okay,
so this bill is not a big deal.
Few people actually give up their U.S. citizenship and it’s not likely
to directly affect you. What’s
more, if someone decides to give up their citizenship, who really cares how
much they’re taxed? But it does
establish some policies, procedures and tax rates for individuals who decide to
live offshore. Policies,
procedures and tax rates that very well could affect you in the future.
As
a follow up to the Heart Act of 2008 we have the Hiring Incentives
to Restore Employment Act (H.R. 2487) commonly known as the HIRE Act (don’t
you just love these names?). This is the jobs incentive bill that was
signed by the President on March 18th amid little fanfare. In a congressional bill of 47 pages,
presumably written to address the unemployment situation in the U.S., 21 pages
are devoted to the treatment of foreign bank accounts and other offshore
investment vehicles held or controlled by U.S. citizens. But I thought U.S. citizens were
already required by law to disclose their overseas account to the IRS, so why
do we need this legislation? Well,
yes they are. But this law goes a
bit farther in that it requires foreign financial and non-financial firms to
report accounts held by American citizens to the U.S. Treasury. So, in effect, the United States
Congress has passed a law that requires a foreign firm, located in a foreign
country, to disclose account information held by a U.S. citizen (including
name, address, tax ID number, account number, account balance, and flows of
funds into and out of the account) to the United States Treasury on their
demand. Now, that takes some
nerve. What if the country where
the financial firm is located has laws against disclosing this
information? In that case, the law
requires the financial firm to obtain a signed waiver from the account holder
authorizing the firm to disclose the information. If they don’t sign the waiver, the financial firm is
required to close the account. I
spoke to an attorney friend of mine who told me that his firm is no longer
accepting U.S. clients because they don’t want to be harassed by the IRS. Because of this law, foreign banks are
likely to close accounts held by Americans due to the bookkeeping hassle or the
potential liability posed by the U.S. account holder. The fact that banks and law firms will
no longer want to work with U.S. citizens is an unintended consequence of this
legislation. Or was that the real intended purpose?
Despite these two laws, the U.S. Treasury knows that a
determined citizen, driven by the fear of increasing taxes and confiscation,
will find ways to keep their privacy and their assets away from the long reach
of the U.S. government. In fact,
the Hire Act even has a name for
these non compliant citizens – recalcitrant tax payers. And this is
where I think a third piece of legislation will fill the gap.
It’s my belief, based on the actions already taken by the
U.S. government, that an exit tax will be instituted to capture money at the
source (your U.S. bank), before it leaves the country. I believe that this exit tax will apply
only to certain specified transaction (since senators, congressmen and their
wealthy patrons will still need to get their money out of the country). Further, I think this tax rate will be
in the 30% range (remember the Heart Act
and the withholding requirements of the Hire
Act?) and will be withheld by your bank and remitted to the U.S. Treasury
at the time you make a transfer to a foreign entity. Like the provisions inserted into the Heart Act and the Hire Act,
this exit tax will likely make its way into some well meaning piece of
legislation, inconspicuously inserted in the arcane language of the bill and
will become the law of the land.
Most Americans will not even know the law exists and many of those that
do understand won’t object because it will not have any impact on their lives.
And this, my friends, is how the $250,000 house in Panama
suddenly costs $357,000 and the $150,000 condo will take $215,000 of your hard
earned cash to buy.
If you are thinking about moving to Panama (or any foreign
country) or investing overseas, the window of opportunity is getter smaller and
smaller. Although I don’t believe
the U.S. government will ever prohibit you from leaving the country, I’m convinced
that they will make it increasingly difficult to get your money out without a
punitive tax.
Perhaps I’m wrong.
Maybe I’m misreading the situation and the U.S. government isn’t
concerned about the flows of funds overseas for the average citizen. And maybe this current financial crisis
is just a bump in the road and the economy of the United States will start
growing enough to cover the debts that are piling up without huge tax
increases. Maybe.
But try this mental exercise – Let’s say you believe the
scenario I’ve described is a real possibility and you decide to act by moving
some of all of your assets overseas, buying a house and creating a “Plan B”
lifestyle for you and your family.
And then, none of the currency restrictions predicted happen, the U.S.
economy springs back to life, the government institutes favorable tax policies
to encourage investment and growth and money making opportunities abound. What’s the worse thing that can
happen? You can always move your
assets back to the U.S. since you’ll never see restrictions on money moving
into the country.
But what if I’m right?
What if the economy continues to sputter? What if unfunded liabilities like Medicare, Social Security
or the new health care plan continue to expand the federal debt causing the
economy to stagnate, forcing increases in tax rates and placing restrictions on
the flow of capital overseas? If
you’ve chosen not to take action, what options are left for you and your family
and at what cost?
Freedom means having the ability to make choices. I believe there’s still time to make
choices but the clock is winding down.
Good luck and
God bless.
Paul McBride
You can email Paul by clicking here.
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