A number of readers have asked me how they might invest in Panama and the canal expansion and when this article came across my desk I thought it worthy of posting. It seems there are indirect ways to invest without the risk of starting your own business in Panama.
From Seekingalpha.com
www.violentcapitalist.com
Asset Management
Portfolio Management
Research
Bladex (Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior S.A.) (BLX)
is a trade finance bank headquartered in Panama. Being a trade bank
means they only operate with short term loans, predominantly financing
international transactions (i.e. letters of credit). They have some
other commercial lending and asset management businesses, and the
latter has been the source of much of their problems in their inability
to generate meaningful income the past few quarters. The other problem
has been the fact that they have been unable to grow their loan book.
As of Q1, they have over $300M cash deposits and about $1.8 billion in
debt. Book value stands around $700M. Market Cap is about $450M.
Normalized earnings for the year should total about $50M. Therefore the
PE ratio stands at about 8.5x and its Market Cap to book value is .55.
It looks like book value has declined slightly in Q2, so it's probably
closer to .6 as of today. The stock also has a 4.5% dividend yield. Its
capital ratios stand above 20%, and writeoffs for losses are paltry.
Regardless,
the earnings power of Bladex is probably upwards of $70M, and
especially as interest rates rise and trade with Central and South
American continues to grow I think it'll get closer to $100M, possibly
making them worth in the mid $20's. It wouldn't hurt if the bank can
start generating some positive income from the asset management
business as well (mostly short-term mark to market losses anyways). The
bank currently now depends mostly on Brazil, which covers about 50% of
the loan book. However, they are looking to expand their footprint.
Peru and Chile accounted for $60M in loans in 2008, in 2008 that number
has grown to almost $400M.
The catalyst here in my opinion is
the strength of the Panamanian economy (Panama has not had a recession
since the fall of Noriega and is a USD-based economy) and the expansion
of the Panama Canal. The canal is set to expand its capacity 100% over
the next few years, providing steady growth for Panama and opportunity
for all trade finance-related operations to grow their businesses.
Panama itself is a very interesting country. It's main industries are
in banking/finance/trade, whereas a lot of outsiders will probably
assume that it would probably be more akin to its neighbors' strengths
in tourism/commodities/manufacturing. Regardless, Panama, being the
owner of the Panama Canal, gets to play on all these factors as global
trade expands.
On face value, Bladex should at minimum be worth
book value or about $18.50/share. As the world economy stabilizes and
Central/South America expand, along with the expansion of the Panama
Canal, it should see steady growth for the next few years. A
concentration on short term lending insulates it from many of the
problems larger banks have faced, and a USD-based currency takes out
currency risks for US investors.
Tell me what US bank has a better risk-adjusted investment case.
Conservative Fair Value: $18.50
Strategy: Buy 1/3 of a position at $12, 55% potential gain + 4.5% dividend yield, 5 year total return expected to be about 100%
Disclosure: Outstanding order to purchase at about $12/share
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